The prediction market platform Kalshi moved quickly on Friday to distance itself from a wave of conspiracy theories about the Los Angeles mayoral election, asking sponsored influencers to delete posts that questioned the integrity of the vote count. According to a report from Semafor, the company took action after several of its paid partners published content implying that late-arriving mail-in ballots were being used to rig the election against a conservative candidate. The posts have since been removed, but similar content tied to Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, remains online.
The controversy erupted in the days following the June 2 primary, as results trickled in slowly—a familiar pattern in California elections known as the “red mirage.” This phenomenon occurs because vote-by-mail ballots, which are often cast by Democrats later in the process, are counted after in-person votes, which tend to skew Republican. On election night, Republican Spencer Pratt appeared to have a comfortable lead for second place, securing him a spot in the November runoff. However, as more mail-in ballots were tallied over the following days, progressive candidate Nithya Raman began to close the gap, leading to widespread speculation about foul play.
Right-wing influencers with sponsorship deals from Kalshi and Polymarket seized on the delay to fuel doubts. One such influencer, Kangmin Lee, posted an embed from Polymarket on X (formerly Twitter) with the caption: “Notice how the mail-in ballots that come in last second always end up voting Democrat. Totally a coincidence, nothing to see here.” The post was marked as a paid partnership. Another influencer, Benny Johnson, wrote: “The public has so little faith in California’s elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it with questionable ballot counting DAYS after Election Day.” Johnson’s post also carried a paid partnership label.
Kalshi’s response was swift. The company said it had “asked these to be taken down, as they violate our affiliate marketing policies,” according to spokesperson Dani Lever. One deleted post, from influencer David J. Freeman (known as “Gunther Eagleman”), had asked: “Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?” and included an approving quote saying, “Yes they are cheating.” Another deleted post from Matt Van Swol read: “I need someone to explain to me how EVERY SINGLE VOTE that comes in ‘late’ to California … nearly 100% of them … Go to ANYONE but Spencer Pratt.”
The incident highlights the growing intersection of prediction markets, influencer marketing, and political disinformation. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have been aggressively expanding their influence operations, paying hundreds of influencers to promote their platforms. According to a Politico report, an executive at Polymarket sent at least $350,000 to influencers via a personal PayPal account over the past year and a half. While Kalshi has taken a firm stance against conspiracy-laden content, Polymarket has not commented on the matter, leaving its policy unclear. Gizmodo reached out to Polymarket for clarification but did not receive a response at press time.
The Los Angeles mayoral race became a flashpoint for these tensions because of the state’s notoriously slow ballot-counting process. California allows mail-in ballots to be postmarked on Election Day and received up to seven days later, and counties can take weeks to certify results. This creates an environment ripe for suspicion, especially when early returns favor one party and later returns shift the balance. In this case, Spencer Pratt—a former reality TV villain from “The Hills”—has positioned himself as a conservative outsider, while Nithya Raman is a progressive city councilwoman. As of the latest count, Pratt holds 28.2% of the vote compared to Raman’s 24.9%, but prediction markets give Raman a 95% chance of advancing to November, while Pratt’s odds have fallen to 6%. The discrepancy between current vote totals and market odds further fuels conspiracy theories, even though it is entirely consistent with the expected pattern of late-counted ballots breaking for Democrats.
Prediction markets operate by allowing users to buy and sell shares in the outcomes of events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability. They have become increasingly popular as tools for forecasting elections, but their reliance on timely and accurate information makes them vulnerable to manipulation. When influencers with large followings cast doubt on the integrity of the vote, it can distort market prices and erode public trust. Kalshi’s decision to crack down on such posts may be an attempt to preserve the credibility of its platform, especially as it faces regulatory scrutiny. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been eyeing the industry, and any association with disinformation could invite more oversight.
For now, the Los Angeles election continues to be counted, and the final outcome remains uncertain. What is clear is that the combination of slow vote tallying, partisan mistrust, and paid influencer campaigns has created a perfect storm for misinformation. Kalshi’s actions may set a precedent for how prediction markets handle such content in the future, but Polymarket’s silence suggests that the industry is far from unified on the issue. As election season heats up ahead of the November general election, the role of these platforms and their influencer partners will likely face increased scrutiny from regulators and the public alike.
Source: Gizmodo News